When will the next recession begin?
Blog post by : Betty Rauch
Data provided by :
Steve Harney with the August 2019 edition of the Keeping Current
Matters Monthly Market Report.
The top economists in the country were asked "When will the next recession begin?"
These 3 slides demonstrate that a Recession does not necessarily mean it will be a decrease in property value it could just be a decrease in the amount property increased from the prior years. The last couple of years we saw 8-10 % increase in Broward county per year. If in the next 5 years each years we see an increase of 2.5 - 4% per year then it will not be a decrease in property value.
Below is the historic data for the last 5 recessions.
3 of the last recessions showed property value still increased during the recession.
1980- increase of 6.1%
1981- 3.5%
2001- 6.6%
The most important thing is the same people that projected the recession was coming
also said prices are not going to depreciate. Appreciation is going to decelerate, but prices are still
going to go up. So, the crash that we saw in 2008 - the people actually predicting the recession are
saying we’re not going to see that again. All we’re going to see is a slowdown in the amount or the
percentage that homes are going up, not that they’re going to depreciate. And Morgan Housel, a
well-renowned financial analyst - I like what he said: “An interesting thing is the widespread assumption
that the next recession will be as bad as 2008. Natural to think that way, but, statistically, highly unlikely.
Could be over before you realized it began.” - Steve Harney
Comments
Post a Comment